ArabianMoney.Net

First with Financial Comment from Arabia

August 14th for stock market crash say astrologers

with 14 comments

astrological-chart-2012_phixrOK this is a story for the silly season, perhaps. But if you do a Google search ‘stock market crash astrology 2009’ then an article appears that claims the author first forecast August 14th for a big stock market crash as long ago as July 1996.

It is but a year ago that I scoffed on this website at another astrological prediction about a coming autumn stock market crash, although I did write a number of articles at that time endorsing this view. That said I was far too positive about oil, gold and Dubai property last summer and would have been better off listening to the astrologers. So what are they saying now?

Lucky Days

‘Worldwide, housing prices have risen to near frightening levels. Most economically active people in the world are up to their eyes in debt. People own luxuries and properties that they can barely afford. America is in debt as a country. Most of the world is in debt, and we have just come through the greatest rise in the stock markets ever!

‘What is happening? The stage is being set for a massive wipeout in equities worldwide. The days of this supercycle peak that fund managers believe they can ride for much longer are numbered. People are going to wait too long and when the stampede begins, they won’t be able to find buyers for their stocks. Hedge fund strategies will fail. Absolute returns will fail. Pension funds will suffer.

‘Civil infrastructures will be tested to their limits against growing numbers of the poor as they migrate to richer countries. Companies will be going bankrupt by the dozen.

It is time you began to reflect on this possibility very seriously. It could be many years before the equity markets even begin to regain their current levels. If you do not have five to 10 years to spend waiting for your investments to recover, then the stock markets are definitely not the place you should be at the end of this decade.’

My own take

Personally this is what I expect to happen: weakness in global stock markets could well set in next week, and the S&P faltered at a 49 per cent retracement from March lows yesterday, already a historic rally that surely can not head much higher.

The sell-off should gain momentum and the risk is that a panic ensues and stocks over correct to the downside. That is what they normally do, and this is the worst recession in living memory, so logically it ought to be a worse market downturn than normal (and certainly not better as it is now).

Stock market slumps are usually quick, however, although a long-term secular bear market does not mean that the low of this cycle is necessarily the final bottom. That could still take two, three or even five or ten years (like Japan).

It would not be unreasonable to expect a capitulation this autumn to hit 50 per cent of current levels, or 500 points on the S&P. This concept will be greeted with howls of derision but I leave for my holidays tomorrow with short positions in place.

Last year I chose to ignore both my own common sense and the astrologers and I will not be doing that again!

Editors Note: Chinese stocks did peak on this day.

Advertisements

14 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Don’t need an astrologist to know there is another crash coming… although maybe not in August. I’m expecting another correction as we approach the traditional crash month of October.

    mktcrash

    August 26, 2009 at 11:08 am

  2. Further confirmation of prediction;

    Note that “B” date in previous message [“08/18/09”] occurred on 08/19/09 in Iraq, due to time zone differential.

    A) Sun 150* Uranus (Tuesday 08/18/09 – 5:03 p.m., Baghdad time)

    B) Mars 150* Uranus (Weds. 08/19/09 – 5:23 a.m., same)

    C) Jupiter 150* Saturn (Weds. 08/19/09 – 6:07 p.m. same)

    D) Event

    New York Times – Sam Dagher – Baghdad – August 20, 2009 [Copied 08/19/09 at 11:45 a.m.]

    “At least 95 people were killed & 563 wounded in… truck bombings [etc.] on Wednesday [08/19/09] that rocked… official buildings in central Baghdad….

    “Attacks were among the most devastating in Baghdad since the withdrawal of American forces from street patrols at the end of June [2009]…

    “Explosions… sent plumes of dark smoke billowing over the capital, ripped a gaping hole in a compound wall & set cars ablaze, trapping drivers inside…

    “The two truck bombs on Wednesday morning [08/19/09] struck the Foreign & Finance Ministries within three minutes of each other… first explosion came shortly before 11 a.m. [11/19/09] …minutes later, a more powerful blast shook another area of Baghdad near the Foreign Ministry…

    Don Reed

    August 19, 2009 at 7:55 pm

  3. Good morning to all.

    Prediction [see below], unfortunately, confirmed.

    The following is from today’s New York Times, copied at 6:15 am, Tuesday, 18 August 2009.

    Dozens Thought [To Be] Dead At Russia [Sic] Plant

    “NYT 08/18/09 – By ELLEN BARRY and MICHAEL SCHWIRTZ

    “MOSCOW — Dozens of workers trapped in a Siberian hydroelectric plant after an explosion on Monday have likely drowned, Vitaly Zubakin, the acting chief executive of RusHydro, which owns the plant, said on Tuesday [08/18/09].

    “At least 12 people died in the explosion at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric plant, Russia’s’s largest power generator, in the Khakassia region of Siberia, according to the Emergency Situations Ministry. Some 64 people were still missing as of Tuesday morning, the ministry said…

    “The exact cause of the explosion, which cut power to five major factories and to residents, was still unknown.

    “Vladimir Markin, a spokesman for Russia’s general prosecutor’s office, told the Itar-Tass news service that the accident occurred when a transformer exploded during repairs, cracking the walls and ceiling and causing water to fill an engine room. But RusHydro officials said the flooding was caused by a surge in hydraulic pressure, which they believed was caused by human error.”

    Hell of a way to start a day. Let’s hope there aren’t more of these tragedies today.

    Don Reed

    August 18, 2009 at 2:22 pm

  4. “The sun [it’s been blank for 38 days currently- if it continues much longer it will start breaking records]…”

    Miles, As an astrologer, I’m not familiar with your terminology (slang?), “blank for 38 days.”

    Can you elaborate/clarify?

    Given the trend of last Friday, this Monday (today), & the historical trend of Wall Street running in panic headfirst through brick walls at the sight of ONE mouse –

    Tomorrow: Tuesday August 18th – looks unequivocally dangerous.

    Reason: Both the Sun & Mars are at dangerous angles to Uranus –

    That they both occur on the same date is beyond mere coincidence. The probability of accidents, upsets, reversals, earthquakes, crashes (planes, trains, computers, transformers, etc.) & above all, willful, ill-tempered people doing ill-advised things worldwide – is overwhelming.

    Aside from the headline about today’s market emailed to my inbox, I haven’t looked at any hard news today. When I do, it will not be surprising if the above trends have already exploded into view. Not rooting for any of this to occur, maybe we’ll luck out. Maybe the fuse will be wet.

    The Mars/Uranus negative angle, especially, is infamous for activating prematurely, 24-48 hours in advance.

    Overview:

    September 12, 2009: Major negative angle between Saturn/Neptune; &

    Sept. 15th, 2009: 2nd (of 5) Opposition between Saturn & Uranus occurs (the first, Election Day 2008).

    These are not our friends.

    The fifth & final “hit” is 07/26/2010. This is why, in my opinion, the expectations of the 2008 Crash/2009 hangover being resolved, prior to late 2010, are in expensive error.

    In the next four-five weeks, re Wall Street, these two days – and the events that transpire on or about those dates – are the ones I’m primarily concerned about.

    Don Reed

    August 18, 2009 at 2:05 am

  5. Well the 14th did seem to mark a start of a broad-based post rally sell off, which continued with more conviction today.
    Things look gittery.. but with so many push and pull factors it’s hard to tell which way things will go.

    Astrologers may i add a further thing to consider : the sun [it’s been blank for 38 days currently- if it continues much longer it will start breaking records] there is possible positive correlation link to markets, just something to consider.

    Miles Armstrong

    August 18, 2009 at 1:23 am

  6. U.S. stock futures fell sharply Monday after overseas markets extended the heavy selling that began on Wall Street Friday. That pullback followed a weaker than expected reading on consumer confidence.

    The Shanghai stock market fell almost 6 percent and the major indexes in Europe were all down more than 1.5 percent.

    Oil prices also continued to fall sharply, reflecting the growing concerns about a weak economy that will curtail demand for energy.

    Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 180, or 1.9 percent, to 9,141. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures declined 21.10, or 2.1 percent, to 984.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures declined 30.50, or 1.9 percent, to 1,584.50.

    Peter Cooper

    August 17, 2009 at 5:13 pm

  7. Perhaps August 14th was a turning point in financial markets – we will have to wait and see. Personally I am short of this market.

    Peter Cooper

    August 15, 2009 at 12:44 am

  8. On Friday August 14, 2009, 10:24 am EDT
    Buzz up! 0
    Print
    NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks fell sharply Friday as investors worried that nervous consumers will short-circuit the economic recovery.

    Traders were disappointed by media reports that the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell sharply in the first part of this month, a sign that consumers may continue to curtail their spending as they worry about losing their jobs. Consumer spending is crucial for the economy to emerge from recession as it accounts for two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity.

    The discouraging reading came a day after the Commerce Department reported an unexpected decline in retail sales. Investors were able to shake off that reading, but Friday’s consumer sentiment number had them bailing out of stocks and moving their money to the relative safety of government bonds. Treasury prices rose sharply, pushing their yields lower.

    The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index was flat in July after a slight increase in June. Inflation is bad for bonds because it eats into their fixed returns over time.

    Meanwhile, the market shrugged off a report showing a bigger-than-expected increase in industrial production. Investors have come to expect an improvement in manufacturing activity; their concern now is the consumer.

    In early trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 137.55, or 1.5 percent, to 9,260.64. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 15.35, or 1.5 percent, to 997.38, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 32.47, or 1.6 percent, to 1,976.88.

    Peter Cooper

    August 14, 2009 at 6:47 pm

  9. Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks are “dramatically overpriced” because the fallout from the financial crisis will continue to hurt consumer spending, said David Tice, Federated Investors Inc.’s chief portfolio strategist for bear markets.

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has climbed 50 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 on speculation the economy is recovering from the worst contraction since the Great Depression. The rally pushed the index’s price relative to trailing 12-month operating earnings to 18.65, the most expensive since December 2004, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.

    “I’d love for prosperity to return, unfortunately I think you need to be realistic and it takes time to work off these excesses” from a bubble in credit markets, Tice said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

    Tice, who predicts that the S&P 500 will eventually slump to 400 points, said he would add to short positions should the rally continue. The S&P 500 rose to a 10-month high of 1,012.73 yesterday. The main benchmark for American equities hasn’t closed below 400 since 1992.

    Prudent Bear

    “This rally was not unexpected,” Tice said. “After a big decline like we had, it’s not unexpected to have a big rally.”

    The S&P 500 fell 57 percent from a record in October 2007 through March 9 on global financial company writedowns and losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market that reached $1.6 trillion. Tice said he’s the most confident ever that the stocks will fall beneath their March lows. A drop to 400, a 61 percent plunge from yesterday’s close, is likely within a year, he said.

    The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that Tice founded returned 27 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937.

    Investor sentiment improved around the globe this month, turning bears into bulls in five of the world’s biggest stock markets as earnings and economic data topped estimates, according to the Bloomberg Professional Confidence Survey. Optimism on U.S. equities climbed the most since April and was within 1 point of reaching 50, the level that shows participants expect prices to rise in the next six months.

    Predictions for an economic recovery led by a rebound in consumer spending are unrealistic because falling real estate prices have destroyed wealth, Tice said.

    “The consumer has had a diminution of net worth like we’ve never seen,” he said. “That’s going to impair spending.”

    Peter Cooper

    August 14, 2009 at 6:43 pm

  10. “OK this is a story for the silly season, perhaps.”

    NEVER open a dead-serious analysis with a coy disclaimer.

    Be a stylist in other forms of writing and prosper.

    Here, stand your ground from the start. You either have strong convictions or you do not. Dither elsewhere.

    As an astrologer in the United States, with over thirty-seven years of experience, I’ll now be looking at this and another column about August 14th, 2009, and I extend my warmest appreciation to both of you for the heads-up.

    Regards,

    DR

    Don Reed

    August 9, 2009 at 11:04 pm

  11. Let us wait and see. Investors can now onwards consult the astrologers than stock brokers.

    marhabahome

    August 8, 2009 at 1:37 pm

  12. Gotta agree with Andy’s comment below, Peter!

    obewon

    August 7, 2009 at 7:44 pm

  13. I also expect a market crash in the near future. This market crash in the US won’t happen without oil prices taking a beating along as well so as we know when oil prices go down UAE markets never fail to follow. The last time oil prices came tumbling down local markets in the UAE also followed tumbling down and then the real estate market followed suit.

    I expect US markets to see a major correction, oil prices to dip big time and US real estate market to enter phase 2 of another correction. With all this happening there will be more empty units in Dubai and further discounting of current prices which are still way over inflated.

    Andy

    August 7, 2009 at 1:23 am

  14. I don’t have confidence in the “assessment” or predictions of just one person, whether an astrologer, or an economist, or a structural engineer (in the case of economists, I have zero confidence in 10 of them combined, since they all tend to group their predictions around the “norm”, so as not to be “too far off” from the average).

    In addition, I’m skeptical of western astrology, its unstructured processes, and the wide variance in its interpretations; however, I believe there is much merit to ancient Hindu astrology, also known as “Jyotish.”

    It would be interesting to poll 10 long-time Jyotish astrologers, and ask them for their assessment. That would be worth reading.

    obewon

    August 6, 2009 at 7:30 pm


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: